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Could the average detached price within #Vancouver skyrocket to $4.4-million in 2030?

Soaring real estate prices have been the equivalent of winning the lottery for thousands of people who own single-family detached homes in Vancouver.

The average price of new and existing detached houses sold within the city of Vancouver has topped $1.9-million. An eye-popping projection by Vancouver City Savings Credit Union calls for the average detached price within Vancouver’s city limits to skyrocket to $4.4-million in 2030, if pricing trends of recent years continue unabated.

Real estate industry officials say the price projection is theoretical and fantastical, but Vancity said its outlook is meant to sound the alarm on an already expensive market becoming even more mind-boggling.

A decade ago, housing experts would have been incredulous at what has transpired. The average price for new and existing detached properties sold within the city of Vancouver reached $1,914,069 last year, up 173 per cent from $701,094 in 2005, according to data released by Vancity to The Globe and Mail.

Low mortgage rates, a limited land base and new residents moving to B.C. from overseas and other provinces all contribute to the housing boom. “It creates the perfect storm for a bit of a frenzy for home buyers,” Darcy McLeod, president of the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver said.

Last month, a Vancity report said the average price for all housing types within Vancouver could theoretically exceed $2.1-million in 2030, based on recent pricing growth. For detached homes, condos and townhouses within Vancouver’s city limits, the average price climbed 126 per cent over the past decade – from $449,953 in 2005 to $1,018,188 last year, Vancity said.

Vancity commissioned Central 1 Credit Union senior economist Bryan Yu and chief economist Helmut Pastrick to compile and refine statistics from Landcor Data Corp., focusing on land title transfers arising from arm’s-length transactions. Landcor tracks real estate data for new and existing properties.

In Greater Vancouver, including suburbs such as Richmond and Burnaby, the average price for resale detached homes set a record last month of more than $1.4-million, up 16.2 per cent from March, 2014. Properties don’t sit long on the market. It took an average of 33 days to sell an existing detached home in March, compared with 42 days in the same month in 2014.

Canada’s most expensive housing market has become a city of real estate millionaires.

A study by Andrew Yan, an urban planner with Bing Thom Architects, found that 66 per cent of the nearly 68,600 detached properties within the city of Vancouver were conservatively assessed at $1-million or higher last July.

Many younger consumers are looking at resale condos, which had an average price of $465,225 last month in Greater Vancouver.

“First-time buyers are going to have to accept smaller spaces and take advantage of outdoor public amenities,” said Andy Broderick, Vancity’s vice-president of community investment. “It’s going to get tougher and tougher.”

Source: Brent Jang, The Globe and Mail